When you are trying to time the best time to borrow for your house, picking a time when interest rates are lower will save you a lot of money. If you think interest rates are going to increase, you will want to lock in a lower rate now, but if you think rates can still fall considerably, you may want to wait before you commit to a home loan.
Understanding how interest rates are determined, and what influences them, will help you make an educated guess about the direction they will take. If you regard interest rates as the price of money, and realize that factors like supply and demand influence all prices, you can see how the ?price? of money can even affect your mortgage.
Inflation is one of the most important influences on interest rates. Inflation is measured by two important indicators called price indicators. The PPI (Producer Price Index) and the CPI (the Consumer Price Index).
PPI or Producer Price Index is a measure of changes in prices at the level of production. If PPI is rising, this means that the cost of finished goods is higher, which will lead to inflation.
CPI is the change in prices at the consumer level and is calculated by the overall costs in a basket of goods defined by the government statisticians. It is considered the most important measure of inflation, since rising prices that consumers pay for goods are at the heart of inflation. The so called ?basket of goods? used is steady so that economists can measure how prices change, but because food and energy are included, they are often eliminated to lower volatility. The volatile segments of food and energy can affect the inflation rate, while core inflation gives a better measure if overall prices are increasing, causing inflation.
GDP is another fairly good predictor of inflation and interest rates. The Federal Reserve Bank attempts to keep the economy growing at a sustainable rate; too slow and production will lag, causing a recession; too fast and the economy may overheat. The Fed has the tools to intervene in the economy in certain ways so that it can decrease rates to slow the economy down and increase them to speed it up.
The unemployment rate also has an impact on interest rates. If the economy is experiencing low unemployment, inflation will probably follow since salaries have to go up to bring in candidates. High unemployment will typically lead to lower interest rates since it means lower wages and therefore lower prices. Higher wages lead to price spirals while lower wages give way to to prices falling.
If you are considering a loan, it is to your advantage to watch these indicators to find the best timing to enter the loan market. A general rule is falling GDP and higher unemployment will lead to decreased interest rates. Growing GDP and low unemployment can signal a faster growing economy and rates will probably be going up.